Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,581,337$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,557,581.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 286.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,557,581.1\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $281,186$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{266,053.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(266,053.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,724,125$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,168,395$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,162,041.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 164.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,162,041.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109,456$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,366.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 139.2)}}\) (asimptote \(105,366.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $199,296$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $175,907$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166,764.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 167.6)}}\) (asimptote \(166,764.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,173$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,018.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 151.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,018.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,487$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,601$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,609.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 249.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,609.3\))
Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $172$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,677$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $143,685$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,570.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 208.3)}}\) (asimptote \(155,570.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,773$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,879.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 198.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,879.4\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,123$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $412,543$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,607$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,747.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 59.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,747.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $70,260$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $109,960$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,028.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 160.9)}}\) (asimptote \(112,028.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,941$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,915.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 140.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,915.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,923$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $125,352$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,157.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 148.6)}}\) (asimptote \(119,157.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,239$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,939.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,939.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,243$ on 2020-12-05