Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • US
  • Mexico
  • Panama
  • Belize
  • Costa Rica
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Jamaica

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,581,337$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,557,581.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 286.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,557,581.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $281,186$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{266,053.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(266,053.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,724,125$ on 2020-12-05

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,168,395$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,162,041.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 164.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,162,041.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109,456$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,366.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 139.2)}}\) (asimptote \(105,366.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $199,296$ on 2020-12-05

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $175,907$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166,764.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 167.6)}}\) (asimptote \(166,764.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,173$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,018.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 151.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,018.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,487$ on 2020-12-05

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,601$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,609.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 249.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,609.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $172$ on 2020-12-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,677$ on 2020-12-05

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $143,685$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,570.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 208.3)}}\) (asimptote \(155,570.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,773$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,879.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 198.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,879.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,123$ on 2020-12-05

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $412,543$ on 2020-12-05

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,607$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,747.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 59.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,747.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,260$ on 2020-12-05

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,960$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,028.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 160.9)}}\) (asimptote \(112,028.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,941$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,915.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 140.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,915.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,923$ on 2020-12-05

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $125,352$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,157.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 148.6)}}\) (asimptote \(119,157.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,239$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,939.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,939.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,243$ on 2020-12-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 81%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 71%
Jamaica recovered 15%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,718$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,274.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,274.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,153$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,052.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,052.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,279$ on 2020-12-05

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,751$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,261.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 186.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,261.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $122$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 180.5)}}\) (asimptote \(119.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $722$ on 2020-12-05

Jamaica⮸

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,063$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,104.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 197.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,104.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $261$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 204.8)}}\) (asimptote \(263.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,936$ on 2020-12-05